Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 21.327410 23.170055 25.159738 27.478434 30.119755 33.050931 36.572175
2025-10-19 18.603006 21.165334 24.128788 27.852671 32.469878 38.093454 45.600795
2025-10-26 16.529478 19.449596 23.003622 27.737815 34.024128 42.311082 54.479510
2025-11-02 14.935007 18.030299 21.949388 27.418971 35.106104 45.956999 63.335727
2025-11-09 13.797238 17.015545 21.228071 27.348425 36.395718 49.998928 73.700609
2025-11-16 12.822881 16.091964 20.490098 27.100904 37.310785 53.556763 84.196411
2025-11-23 11.998452 15.281572 19.803614 26.804934 38.048892 56.897234 95.257636
2025-11-30 11.303893 14.584612 19.198091 26.533359 38.743250 60.241300 107.398895
2025-12-07 10.733029 14.012886 18.714065 26.376640 39.573968 63.954653 121.688148
2025-12-14 10.185828 13.433078 18.164280 26.043793 40.030180 67.019244 135.723239
2025-12-21 10.015102 13.387196 18.409827 27.024984 42.974385 75.740029 168.788185
2025-12-28 9.598996 12.945653 18.003951 26.854381 43.720090 79.938087 191.541103
2026-01-04 9.243038 12.579925 17.700269 26.847009 44.820595 85.325229 222.347608
2026-01-11 8.983879 12.347157 17.592580 27.176777 46.661683 93.055306 268.726058
2026-01-18 8.658186 11.991332 17.257074 27.053962 47.530806 98.584349 312.263034
2026-01-25 8.324061 11.603949 16.842651 26.741981 47.939098 103.008507 356.326631
2026-02-01 8.058811 11.312213 16.569712 26.672283 48.882899 109.301797 420.109161
2026-02-08 7.784232 10.991516 16.226664 26.432939 49.396366 114.496196 487.067962
2026-02-15 7.521347 10.677420 15.876210 26.147219 49.758373 119.373192 563.021106
2026-02-22 7.279852 10.387537 15.551487 25.885132 50.143132 124.514663 655.625934
2026-03-01 7.070938 10.142309 15.291824 25.733887 50.789412 130.883298 782.413355
2026-03-08 6.849463 9.866936 14.963587 25.412674 50.950564 135.564421 911.345013
2026-03-15 6.823215 9.917209 15.224220 26.359344 54.666315 156.173899 1407.069660